Wheat failed to look past the bearish USDA data on Friday, as all three exchanges headed lower. Chicago futures closed out the day with contracts down 8 ¾ to 20 ½ cents. Kansas City contracts posted losses of 7 to 16 cents at Friday’s settlement. MPLS spring wheat futures saw losses of 11 ¾ to 21 ¼ cents.

USDA’s balance sheet update for the 2023/24 US wheat crop showed a carryout of 702 mbu, as exports were taken to 707 mbu. For the new crop. The balance sheet is looking less friendly than a month ago, with USDA raising the stocks by 98 mbu to 856 mbu. Some of that was a larger carryover, but most came via production. 

USDA raised the wheat crop by a large 133 mbu to 2.008 bbu, as both harvested acres and yield were raised (by 2.4 bpa to 51.8 bpa). Winter wheat was up 46 mbu to 1.341 bbu, as the HRW total was projected at 763 mbu (+37 mbu), with SRW at 344 mbu (+2 mbu) and white winter at 234 mbu (+8 mbu). The initial other spring wheat figure was tallied at 577.8 mbu, more than 56 mbu above the trade estimates. 

Wheat stocks for the world were raised by 4.97 MMT to 257.24 MMT, with a bulk from the US, as both Canadian and Argentine wheat production were raised.

The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed CBT wheat spec traders net short 69,137 contracts as of July 9, a 4,837 contract reduction on the week. In KC wheat, they were trimming 2,292 contracts to 40,811 contracts by July 9. 

Jul 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.38, down 16 1/4 cents,

Sep 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.50 3/4, down 20 1/2 cents,

Jul 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.04, up 12 3/4 cents,

Sep 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.67 3/4, down 16 cents,

Jul 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.21, unch,

Sep 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.97 1/2, down 21 1/4 cents,