Ag traders saw another mixed/choppy day of price action at the CBOT on Tuesday, with the grain markets closing slightly higher on the day and the soy complex closing mostly in the red on another day with not a lot of new news. Weekly inspection data offered little of note to the markets and was mostly as expected, while a White House meeting between Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei kept the prior's focus away from China for the day. Like we said yesterday, soybean futures stand to see a rather sharp price move should the expected meeting between Trump and Xi fall apart, which keeps this number one market story amid the further continuation of US row crop harvest in the short term.

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.13, up 2 1/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.29 1/4, up 2 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -16 1/4, up 1/4 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Brazil's USDA equivalent CONAB said early this morning that total corn production in the country during the 2025/26 marketing year was expected to reach 138.604 MMTs, which would be down from the 2024/25 figure of 141.095 MMTs. First crop production was seen at 25.632 MMTs vs 24.936 last year, while second crop production was seen at 110.460 MMTs vs 113.271 last year.

• Total planted area was seen at 22.688 million hectares, which would be up some 4% from 21.840 million seen in the previous season.

• This morning's weekly export inspection report for the week ending October 10th showed corn inspections in the week at 1.130 MMTs, which was below the lower end of trade expectations and down 34% from last week. Cumulative inspections at 7.940 MMTs are now up 65% from last year.

Summary:

More of the same in the corn market on Tuesday, with Dec futures making new lows for the move early in the day before rallying and closing slightly higher. Other than the CONAB news and export inspection data this morning, which were largely as expected and didn't offer a lot of excitement, it was another small-ranging day in the space as news continues to be slow. There just continues to be not a lot of new input to the space in recent days, which has been the main contributing factor to the small daily trading ranges seen over the past several days/weeks.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.06 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.24 1/4, down 1 cent
• December Soybean Meal (MZ): $274.30, up 20 cents/ton; outside day higher
• December Soybean Oil (LZ): 50.57, down 0.03 cents/lb
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -17 3/4, down 1/4 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• CONAB this morning pegged soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season at 177.639 MMTs, which would be up from 171.482 MMTs in 24/25. Planted area is seen at 49.074 million hectares, which would be up 3.6% from last year.

• This morning's weekly export inspection report for the week ending October 10th showed soybean inspections in the week at 994k MTs, which was within trade expectations and up 27% from the week prior. Cumulative inspections at 4.040 are now down 26% from last year, mostly due to the lack of China business.

Summary:

The soy complex saw slightly lower closes on Tuesday, with Brazil's CONAB offering a mammoth soybean crop out of the country in its first estimate of the year but this information largely being expected by the trade. The group also pegged planted area in the season up nearly 4% from last year, but most familiar with the situation see these increases as a 'catch-up' situation, as the gains were likely under-realized in recent seasons. Most have attributed this as the reason for sizeable differences in production estimates between CONAB and the USDA in recent years.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.00 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; new contract low at 4.92 1/4
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.16 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents; new contract low at 5.08 1/2 and an outside day higher
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -16 1/2, unchanged

📋 Market Headlines:

• Wheat inspections in the week ending October 10th were seen at 444k MTs, which was down 19% from last week. Cumulative inspections in the marketing year started June 1 are now seen at 10.665 MMTs, which is up 18% from last year.

Summary:

Another day, another round of new contract lows in the wheat market on Tuesday, as prices continue to trend lower despite seeing higher closes for the day this afternoon. Global production figures continue to dominate most of the fundamental happenings, with CONAB this morning raising Brazil's production figure 2% to 7.7 MMTs, which is just above the USDA at 7.5 MMTs.