CBOT ag markets saw red closes pretty much across the board on Wednesday, as a lack of new input left prices to drift lower throughout a majority of the day. Mid-day wires attributed the selling to a combination of favorable (cool) weather and a lack of progress on a China deal, which are both plausible, while early murmurs of corn harvest activity across the southern/southwestern Midwest have also begun to trickle in, and are probably also not helping the bull camp any.

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.82 1/2, down 5 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.06, down 3 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -23 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents

📋 Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending August 22nd showed average daily production in the week at 1.070 mil bbls/day, which was down just 0.2% from last week and was down 2.6% from the same week last year.

• The report also showed US ethanol stocks in the week at 22.549 mil bbls, which was down 0.6% from last week and down 4.3% from the same week last year.

• We estimate corn usage in the week at 105.7 mil bu, which brings cumulative marketing year usage to 5.405 bil bu; this compares to 5.284 bil bu through the same week last year and the USDA's forecast for the year of 5.470 bil bu. Of note, next week's report will be the last for the 2024/25 marketing year.

Summary:

Weekly ethanol data was the main talking point in the corn market throughout the day on Wednesday, as the trade was otherwise focused on very early yield reports that were coming in strong out of the south and southwestern parts of the Corn Belt. We don't have a lot of new information to report on the situation today, but would assume generally speaking that yield/crop size will continue to be a near-daily discussion until the harvest has reached at least the 50% mark, and likely even beyond there as the farmer is undersold and will take every opportunity he/she can to tell someone that the market is wrong and the crop isn't there.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Soybeans (SU): $10.27 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; inside day lower
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.47 1/2, down 2 cents; inside day lower
• September Soybean Meal (MU): $293.10, down $4.10/ton
• September Soybean Oil (LU): 52.47, down 0.29 cents/lb
• September/November Spread (SU/SX): -20 1/4, up 1/2 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Soybean oil futures saw follow-through selling on Wednesday, though not to the extent of the pressure seen Tuesday, on news that the US had agreed, in principle, to a deal that would exempt Indonesian palm oil imports into the US from tariffs, effectively adding competition to bean oil.

• StatsCan is expected to show Canada's canola production in the current season at 20.3 MMTs, which compares to their June estimate of 19.2 MMTs and their estimate for last year's crop in August at 19.5 MMTs. The report will be out at 7:30am central time tomorrow morning.

Summary:

The soy complex saw lower closes across the board on Wednesday, as a lack of optimism surrounding talks between lower ranking officials from China and the US later this week led to what could be described as a 'drifting' price environment throughout the day. From a crop standpoint, it is unclear at this time exactly what offset the cooler temperatures to end the month are having on the lack of moisture for most, but this question has undoubtedly taken a backseat this week to the one of when is China going to buy US beans. A big crop is one thing, a big crop without the world's biggest buyer in the market due to political reasons is another.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.02 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.24 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -22, up 1/4 cent
• Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures both made new contract lows throughout the day on Wednesday, as declining world cash values have continued to pressure US markets.

📋 Market Headlines:

• StatsCanada's crop production estimate updates, due out at 7:30am central time tomorrow morning, are expected to show wheat production at 35.9 MMTs, which compares to their June estimate of 35.0 MMT's and their August estimate from last year of 34.4 MMTs. The group is expected to show durum production at 6.0 MMTs vs 5.9 in June and is expected to show barely production at 8.2 MMTs vs 8.1 in June.

Summary:

While the other two markets made another round of new contract lows on Wednesday, Chicago futures did not, although they are once again just above this level as of this afternoon's close. Declining values in all three of Russia, Australia and Argentina in recent days has made it tough sledding for bulls in Chicago, with it being mostly a question of when and not if at this point in relation to another round of new lows. Post-harvest seasonals should kick in at some point before too long, but it appears the market is going to try its best to make a fool of those taking that position too early.