DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY

3/28/2025

Good afternoon. Happy Friday. CBOT markets finished the week mixed Friday on a somewhat surprising increase in volume. A steady climb in bean oil futures from mid-morning on was able to pull soybeans higher for the second consecutive day, while spot corn dropped to test the March 4th low early this morning before finally being able to break free from the wheat market a bit to close nearly 10 cents away from here.

CK ended the week at 4.53 and 1/4, up 3 and 1/4. CN was up 2 cents at 4.60. Outside days higher for both. SK closed at 10.23, up 6 and 1/4. SN was up 6 and 3/4 at 10.37 and 1/4. WK finished at 5.28 and 1/4, down 3 and 3/4. New contract lows for WK at 5.17 and 1/2. Products were mixed, May soybean meal closed at 293.50, down $1.0/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 45.16, up 89 points. Also new contract lows in May meal at 289.70, while bean oil was up nearly 2.5 full cents/lb over the last two days. Livestock markets ended the week on a lower note, April live cattle closed at 208.82, down 72 cents, April feeders were down 62 cents at 286.92, and April hogs closed at 86.70, down 32 cents. Outside markets are mostly in the red also, crude oil futures are down 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 800 points, and the US$ index is down 30 points. The S&P500 is down 120 points and the NASDAQ is down 540 points. Gold futures are up about $20/oz and made new contract highs early in the overnight session last night. Outside day lower for crude oil.

Spreads were mixed to wrap up the week, corn spreads were unchanged to 4 and 3/4 cents higher, and soybean spreads were down 2 and 1/4 to up 6 and 3/4. CK/CN ended the week at -6 and 3/4, up a penny and 1/4, and SK/SN finished the week at -14 and 1/4, down a half cent.

For the week: May corn was down 11 cents; July corn was down 11 and 1/2 cents; May soybeans were up 13 and 1/4 cents; July soybeans were up 15 and 3/4 cents; May Chicago wheat was down 30 cents; May soybean meal was down $6.80/ton; and May soybean oil was up 3.15 cents/lb.

Though activity finally picked up to end the week, it remains that most all of the focus in the ag space continues to be on next week's acreage report and the ensuing tariff announcements after that. As it pertains to the acreage report, trends over the past 20 years show an equal chance of the corn acreage number coming in above or below the average trade guess, as both outcomes have happened 10 of the last 20 years. Soybeans have a bit more of a trend, as the March figure has been below the average trade guess going into the report in 14 of the last 20 years, with it being larger in just 6 years. Looking further down the road, there is a similar lack of trend in corn when it comes to the USDA's final acreage number vs the March estimate, as 11 of the last 20 years have seen a final figure larger than the March estimate, while 9 years saw a smaller final number; again similarly for soybeans, the final acreage number in 8 of the last 20 years was above the March estimate, while being below on the other 12 years.

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